According to well-established historical theories relating to the lifespan of states, the inevitable demise of Israel is a matter of when, not if, writes academic Ahmed Gassama.
Before delving into the subject, it is important to reaffirm that history remains one of the most vital sources for assessing how long a state or a polity is likely to survive. That is why the greatest politicians and military commanders of the past emphasised the importance of studying history.
It offers lessons from past civilisations and allows us to scrutinise the reasons behind the rise and fall of civilisations, empires and states.
Ibn Khaldun wrote in Al-Muqaddimah (1377):
“History is an art of valuable doctrine, numerous in advantages and honourable in purpose; it informs us about bygone nations in the context of their habits, the prophets in the context of their lives, and kings in the context of their states and politics — so those who seek the guidance of the past in either worldly or religious matters may benefit.”
This underscores the importance of analysing historical events to inform both domestic and foreign policy with the aim of ensuring the longevity of nations.
The Zionist entity of Israel
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The Zionist project in Palestine cannot be excluded from the laws that govern the lifespan of states.
The occupying Zionist entity of “Israel” which was established in 1948 through the Balfour Declaration signed between Britain and France in 1917, was conceived as a colonial buffer zone between the eastern and western Arab worlds.
Historically, the Muslim-majority world has only been able to rise when Egypt is united with the Levant. Whenever Egypt is isolated or falls under foreign influence, political division and corruption spread — both among the rulers and the ruled — ushering in chaos and corruption.
Thus, the unity of Egypt and Syria has often been seen as the foundation for Muslim strength and Islamic revival.
Ibn Khaldun also argued that states, like humans, have life cycles. They go through phases of growth and decay, vitality and weakness. He asserted that most states last around a century. Applying this theory to Israel suggests that its collapse may be imminent.
Israel has entrenched itself in building physical and psychological barriers such as the separation wall and the Iron Dome defence system.
These defensive postures echo the strategic errors of the Roman Empire, which built Hadrian’s Wall as it retreated from the frontiers. The logic of empires like revolutionary France was the opposite – expand aggressively or risk internal decay – and Israel’s failure to do so until very recently in Syria, has arguably contributed to its stagnation.
Decline and the resolve of Gaza
Furthermore, by seeking normalisation with historical enemies, Israel has repeated the fatal errors of the Umayyad dynasty.
Abu Muslim al-Khurasani once observed that the Umayyads fell because they “antagonised their allies and befriended their foes — but the latter remained enemies, and the allies turned against them.” Caliph Hisham ibn Abd al-Malik’s decision to bring the Abbasids into the political fold ultimately fuelled division within the ruling elite, leading to the dynasty’s eventual collapse.
British General John Glubb, in The Fate of Empires (1978), argued that a key sign of decline is the mass influx of foreigners. He noted how Rome’s decision to accommodate the Goths hastened its downfall.
These “outsiders,” initially treated as second-class citizens, grew in power and ambition, and eventually toppled their Roman hosts and established the Visigothic Kingdom in Iberia. A similar dynamic may be unfolding in Israel, where demographic shifts and the integration of groups such as Arab citizens and the Falasha Mura are exposing internal fault lines.
Many Israelis have deluded themselves into a false sense of security, enjoying short-lived comfort and opulence. Yet their military conscripts are increasingly seen as lacking resolve, and fear has taken root.
In contrast, the people of Gaza — despite a scarcity in resources — have demonstrated unfathomable resilience. Their lives are defined by struggle and sacrifice, and their deaths by martyrdom. Among them are those who refuse to die ordinary deaths, choosing instead to live with purpose and courage – as the saying goes: “Those who take risks are the ones who will conquer.” True strength is born from hardship. The weak perish in the woods of politics, while the bold carve out history.
Ibn Khaldun described how dynasties are born from rugged desert life — founded by those who endure hardship and develop resilience. Once their descendants grow soft from wealth and ease, they lose the grit and purpose of their forefathers.
This is the current state of Israel: a society that has strayed far from the harsh frontier ethos of its violently genocidal founding fathers. Today, many among the Israeli youth are more immersed in partying and materialism than national service or sacrifice.
Ibn Khaldun captured this decadence when he wrote: “They vulgarly speak obscenity at their gatherings and before their elders and families.”
In contrast, the Palestinians of Gaza — hardened by decades of siege, war, and deprivation— embody the very qualities that foreshadow the downfall of empires and the rise of new ones.
The reasons for Israel’s decline are numerous and warrant far deeper exploration than one article could possibly begin. However, it is reasonable to conclude that since its founding, Israel has laid the seeds of its own undoing. By corrupting its own social fabric and attempting to oppressively dominate others, it has unleashed forces beyond its control.
The demise of Israel is not a matter if, but when. The clock is ticking. And the trumpet that will herald the end of the Zionist entity may soon be sounded — by a modern-day Nebuchadnezzar.
But the real question remains: what will replace Israel in the wake of its downfall?
Ahmed Gassama specialises in American and European Studies. He holds two MAs in Political Science and Cultural Studies from the University of Sousse (Tunisia) and Altınbaş Üniversitesi (Türkiye), with a focus on world politics, history and culture.
