Pro-Gaza and Muslim votes look set to act as kingmakers for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election triggered by former Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation, setting up a potentially bruising battle for Labour in one of its safest London constituencies.
The left-wing seat saw major gains for a pro-Gaza independent and the Greens in the last election, finishing second and third behind Labour and amassing thousands of votes between them.
The seat also boasts a sizeable Muslim population: about 19.7% of residents under the current 2024 constituency boundaries, according to Census 2021 data.
Labour under Keir Starmer faced a major rebellion from Muslim voters and other formerly pro-Labour leftists over his immoral stance on Gaza, appeasement of the far-right and a number of other divisive policies.
The current Labour leader and British Prime Minister Andy Burnham has acknowledged the damage done under Starmer and sought to rebuild bridges with former Labour voters – including Muslims.
If local Muslims and pro-Palestine left-wing voters rally en masse for the vote, it could easily prove a decisive factor in determining who comes out on top, and already several parties are putting forward candidates to seemingly attempt to appeal to voters in this constituency.
The likely candidates
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Labour is reportedly preparing to stand a Muslim woman as its candidate in the seat. Sagal Abdi-Wali, a Somali former child refugee who serves as leader of Camden Council, is the current front-runner, hoping to be selected by local members as the candidate.
In 2019, she described herself as a “socialist” on the LabourList website.
“Camden has been my home since I moved here with my family as a child refugee, fleeing war-torn Somalia. This new home is where I was raised and educated; it’s where I now work for the council and volunteer for local community groups and charities. It is an area steeped in close community values, progressivism and inclusion, all of which have shaped who I am and the socialist principles by which I stand.”
Little is known about Sagal Abdi-Wali. However, what is clear is that the Labour Party has been grooming her for higher things for some time, noticing her rapid rise from Labour member to elected councillor in 2022, then quickly securing the role as head of Camden Council in 2026.
In July, during an interview with pro-Israel Labour MP Steve Reed titled “Going Places”, Reed described her rise as both “dramatic” and “meteoric”.
Sagal Abdi-Wali grew up in Camden after coming to the UK as a child and has built deep roots in the community. There is also a significant Somali community in and around Holborn and St Pancras, particularly around King’s Cross, Somers Town and parts of Camden. If she runs, it would be hard for Somalis to resist backing one of their own as they attempt to achieve becoming the first-ever British-Somali woman in Parliament.
However, Somalis are not the majority Muslim bloc in the seat. The Muslim community is largely made up of Bangladeshis, with some additional Arabs also making up the Islamic electorate.
The Greens are eager to pressure Labour for the seat, with party leader Zack Polanski, who currently sits on the London Assembly, announcing that he intends to seek the Green nomination and enter Parliament in the seat Starmer represented for 11 years.
The Green leader said he had “lived and worked in this community over many years” and claimed the constituency had been “held back by governments who have failed to make the changes to improve people’s lives”.
“We know that the Greens can win here,” Polanski said, promising to stand up for people struggling with the cost of living and accusing Labour of standing up for “corporations and big money”.
Under Polanski, Green Party membership has risen sharply. When he became leader of the Green Party of England and Wales in September 2025, membership was around 68,000–70,000. His hard-left stances, sympathy for Palestine and focus on taking on the far-right led to an extraordinary boost in membership. As of June 2026, it has reportedly reached more than 230,000.
The Greens also managed to secure a historic by-election win in Manchester’s Gorton and Denton in 2026, coming as underdogs to defeat Labour in a traditional stronghold and humiliate an overconfident Reform UK at the same time. The Muslim vote essentially won the seat for Green candidate Hannah Spencer, who ran a campaign specifically focused on targeting the Muslim electorate.
However, more recently, Muslims have grown increasingly uncomfortable with the Green Party’s pro-LGBTQ+ agenda and its unwillingness to form pragmatic electoral pacts with pro-Palestine Muslim independent groups in areas like Batley & Dewsbury, Newham and parts of Birmingham.
Elsewhere, smaller parties are circling around the outskirts. The Workers Party GB, headed by George Galloway, has announced a candidate for the seat. The party has an anti-NATO and anti-imperialist identity but has alienated some former Muslim supporters over its implied support for the former Syrian regime of dictator Bashar al-Assad. The party has struggled to achieve any meaningful success following Galloway’s 2024 by-election success in Rochdale – a campaign which saw Muslims mobilise behind Galloway over his pro-Gaza stance.
In Gorton and Denton, the party was pressured to stand down from running by other left-wing forces due to concerns that its campaign would serve no greater purpose other than to split the anti-Labour vote. It reluctantly accepted after initial resistance to the idea.
Your Party, headed by Jeremy Corbyn, has yet to reveal if it will stand a candidate. 5Pillars understands that local members are in discussion about whether fielding a candidate is the right move at this time. The local pro-Palestine independent Andrew Feinstein, who came in second in the last general election, has declared that he is not able to run in the race.
“Personally I welcome this news and believe Zack Polanski will be an excellent candidate. Unfortunately I am not in a position to stand this time round. The Camden Peoples Alliance, the community group created out of my campaign against Starmer, will meet next week to formally decide our position. This is a crucial time for progressives in Camden and across the country to be united,” Feinstein wrote on X.
Could Gaza decide the seat?
Starmer’s departure has triggered a key by-election which could provide an early electoral test for new Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
The Gaza war was a significant factor in the 2024 election, with Feinstein making opposition to Israel’s actions in Gaza a central part of his campaign. Analysis of the election subsequently highlighted how dissatisfaction with Labour’s position on Gaza helped independent and Green candidates gain support in a number of constituencies.
That history makes the coming contest particularly interesting.
Editorial credit: Rupert Rivett / Shutterstock.com
Labour’s candidate will be attempting to defend a seat that has traditionally been regarded as extremely safe, while the Greens will be hoping that anger over Gaza, combined with the cost-of-living crisis, can turn the constituency into a genuine two-horse race.
The Greens have already made significant gains in Camden, winning 11 council seats at May’s local elections, including wards covering parts of Holborn and St Pancras.
The seat will be a contest of the left, as right-wing parties such as Reform UK and the Tories don’t have a sizeable support base in the area at this time.
Polanski will be pleased not to face competition from the very candidate who gave Labour the biggest run for its money – Feinstein. However, rumours claim that there may be disagreement between local Green members about whether they actually want Polanski to be their candidate or someone more local.
Labour under Burnham will likely make a renewed push to win back angered former voters, including Muslims. A strong, locally-liked Muslim woman might turn out to be a strong choice, but ongoing anger over Palestine is likely to continue undermining their chances, unless Burnham can convince voters he is different, opening the door to some Muslims who want to return to red.
The by-election is expected to take place in October, although a polling date has not yet been set.
