Voting is taking place in the Gorton and Denton by-election with Muslim voters set to decide the outcome in a near three-way tie between the Green Party, Labour and Reform UK.
Recent Opinium polling finds Labour and the Green Party neck and neck at 28 per cent each, with Reform UK just behind on 27 per cent.
Betting markets have mirrored that volatility, placing the Greens as favourites with markets suggesting around 30-38 per cent backing, followed by Reform and Labour significantly behind.
These figures represent a dramatic shift from the 2024 general election, when Labour won the area by a 13,000-vote majority — a margin that now looks perilously tenuous.
The result should be known by the early hours of Friday morning.
Why Muslim voters matter
Muslim voters form a significant bloc in Gorton and Denton (around 30 per cent), especially in urban wards such as Longsight and Levenshulme.
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Their share of the electorate is large enough that how they cast their ballots could effectively determine the winner — or at least shape who gets closest to victory.
Different parties are actively vying for this vote:
The Green Party has run a concerted campaign aimed at Muslim voters, distributing campaign materials in Urdu, Punjabi, Arabic, and Pashto, and appealing to concerns about international issues such as the war in Gaza.
Campaign messaging has explicitly urged Muslim voters to “make Labour pay” and position the Greens as the best defence against both Reform UK and any policies they view as unfavourable.
Labour, conscious of the threat of vote switching, has sent senior party figures and activists to the seat and hammered home warnings that supporting the Greens could inadvertently help Reform UK — whose platform includes Islamophobic and anti-immigration themes that alienate many Muslim voters and other communities.
Tactical voting
This by-election shows how tactical voting has become central. Many voters who oppose Reform UK view the Greens or Labour as vehicles to block a right-wing surge, but they differ over which option is more viable — a strategic dilemma that adds unpredictability to the contest.
Polling suggests that progressive, Muslim and younger voters who feel disillusioned with Labour’s stance on foreign policy and social issues are moving toward the Greens, while others remain loyal to Labour’s traditional focus on public services and local investment.
High stakes for national politics
While a by-election should matter most locally, this contest has assumed national significance.
For Labour Party, losing a formerly comfortable seat would damage Sir Keir Starmer’s narrative of holding together a broad centre-left coalition.
For the Green Party, a win would represent a breakthrough and vindicate efforts to broaden beyond traditional eco-issues into broader socio-political concerns, including those central to Muslim communities.
And for Reform UK, placing first would underscore the potency of its approach to disaffected right-wing voters.
In a race where only a few points separate the leading parties, turnout and targeted electorates are everything.
Muslim voters in Gorton and Denton — motivated by a mix of local needs, international politics, and tactical concerns about which party can best represent their interests — are shaping up to be the kingmakers.
