The pollster Electoral Calculus, which is known for the accuracy of its forecasts, is predicting that Reform UK is on course for a comfortable majority in the next General Election, which means that Nigel Farage will become Prime Minister.
Its June forecast shows Reform UK could win 362 seats in Parliament, with a comfortable majority of 74.
Labour is set to drop to 136 seats and the Liberal Democrats would win 62 seats.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives could fall to just 22 seats, in fifth place behind both the Lib Dems and the SNP (38 seats).
On these figures, Nigel Farage would be Prime Minister with a working majority and no need for a coalition with other parties.
Electoral Calculus says Reform UK is gaining support from almost every other party, particularly from those who didn’t vote last year, the Conservatives and Labour.
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Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is a right-wing populist party with a strong anti-immigration stance, focusing on cultural integration and national identity.
Critics have accused the party of Islamophobia due to statements and actions by its members. For instance, up to a dozen newly elected Reform UK councillors faced scrutiny in May 2025 for allegedly sharing Islamophobic and far-right content on social media, including retweets of Britain First posts and derogatory comments about Islam.
Additionally, a report by the Centre for the Study of Organized Hate (CSOH) in May 2025 claimed that platforms like X amplified Islamophobic narratives around grooming gangs, with Reform UK figures like Lee Anderson contributing to this discourse by questioning Labour’s handling of such issues.
This has fueled perceptions that the party promotes or tolerates anti-Muslim sentiment, particularly by linking immigration to crime in ways that critics argue unfairly target Muslim communities.
On the other hand, Reform UK and its supporters reject the label of Islamophobia. The party’s chairman, Zia Yusuf, a British Muslim, has been cited as evidence of its inclusivity, with supporters arguing that the party has Muslim candidates and backers, countering the narrative of systemic anti-Muslim bias.
