Journalist Abdel Bari Atwan says that the Iraqi army has recovered some pride after it retook Ramadi from ISIS but this doesn’t necessarily mean the beginning of the end of the movement.
Iraqi President Haider al-Abadi has made a triumphant visit to Ramadi which the national army, with air cover from the US-led coalition, finally recaptured. This is a major set back for the ISIS and suggests that the long-mooted attempt to liberate Mosul may well materialize in 2016 now that the army is better prepared and more confident.
It is clear that the two superpowers involved in the crisis – the US and Russia – have agreed to clip the ISIS’s wings in both Iraq and Syria as a prelude to liquidating it entirely. They are backed up in this plan by around a hundred smaller nations. They will be looking to accelerate the training of Iraqi soldiers and continue to work closely with Kurdish fighters who have already achieved successes against ISIS in Mount Sinjar, Tikrit and Baiji. They will also continue to undermine ISIS’s financial flows, which have been considerable, by bombing oil facilities under the group’s control.
If the reported arrest yesterday in Kirkuk of senior IS military commander Abu Omar al-Shishani, along with two of his aides, is true this is a further blow to the group not only in military terms but because it will damage morale among its fighters. The Chechen warlord was part of ISIS’s propaganda machinery and his defeat would also impact on recruitment and support for Baghdadi’s organisation.
Battle for Ramadi
The battle for Ramadi involved 1,000 Iraqi soldiers versus around 300 ISIS fighters; most of the latter were killed but no figures for Iraqi army deaths have been released. Nor is it clear of the Army was helped in the assault by tribal Awakening fighters or US troops or so-called special advisers – all of this will become clear over the next few days one assumes. President Obama has admitted to 5,000 US troops on the ground, the real number may be larger.
The Army’s reputation was in tatters after it conceded several Iraqi cities, full of civilians, to ISIS without a fight. Their cowardice was the subject of ridicule and indignation both in and outside Iraq. After the capture of Mosul, US Defence Secretary Ash Carter said the Iraqi soldiers had no stomach for battle and that he washed his hands of them.
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So how has ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi responded to this unprecedented threat to his strongholds?
Like al-Qaeda and other international jihadist groups, ISIS is adopting the tactic of hijra (flight) – transferring key leaders and battalions of fighters away from unwinnable battles and into safer areas or directing them at new targets. ISIS has already put down strong roots across northern Libya and three days ago, Al-Baghdadi issued a rare audio recording threatening both Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Baghdadi said the group had not forgotten Palestine “for a moment” and claimed that it was getting close to the day when it would surround Israel. According to Baghdadi, because all the “Jews of the world” had gathered in Israel, it would be easy to turn the country into a “graveyard.”
Baghdadi ridiculed Saudi Arabia’s newly formed “Islamic coalition” against ISIS and said that a truly Islamic coalition would be aimed at liberating Palestine and fighting Israel. Demonstrating Baghdadi’s sense that his group is in danger, the tape is nonetheless the first time that he has talked explicitly about Israel.
Jihadist ideologues have long framed the battle as being not only against the “near enemy” (mostly the governments of MENA countries) but also the “far enemy” (the West and its regional ally, Israel). It is uncertain whether recent developments mark the beginning of the end for ISIS or a new phase in its reign of terror.
Struggle for Mosul
The imminent struggle for Mosul, ISIS’s main stronghold and the self-proclaimed capital of the Caliphate, has become the main focus for military planners and commentators alike. This will be the mother of all battles but even if the Iraqis manage to expel the jihadists, they should postpone their dance of joy. If they continue with the same sectarian and divisive policies adopted by the Malaki regime Sunni extremists will inevitably rise up again in one form or another.
This brings us onto the very important question of the US and Russian politicians’ Plan B. If they achieve a victory over ISIS, what next? Libya and Iraq are in chaos following military interventions by the West, and Yemen is being chased into the same abyss by Saudi Arabia. With no post-occupation template, all that thrives in chaos is extremism.
Islamic State may be defeated in Mosul but that is unlikely to signal its demise if the reasons that led to its rise continue. It will likely go underground and step up its terror activities both regionally and abroad, while attempting to establish new strongholds in other territories of former Islamic Caliphates.
