British Muslims are rapidly abandoning the Labour Party, with support plummeting to just 33% ahead of the local elections on May 7.
According to polling data released in a new Policy Exchange report titled Understanding Islamopopulism, if a general election were held tomorrow:
- Only 33% of Muslims in areas of high Muslim population density would vote Labour (an 8-point drop since 2024).
- 27% (up 9 points) would vote Green.
- 14% would vote pro-Gaza independent.
- 9% would vote Conservative.
- 5% would vote Reform UK.
The decline in support for Labour is especially pronounced among younger British Muslims, falling below 30% among the 18–24 age group, with the Gaza conflict emerging as a dominant voting issue.
When respondents were asked to select up to three factors determining their local election vote, 25% of Muslims cited Israel-Gaza (compared to just 5% of the general population), rising to 43% among 18–24-year-olds.
It ranked second only to the cost of living.
The survey, conducted by JL Partners between 16–27 April 2026, polled 1,006 UK Muslim adults living in high-density Muslim areas across Greater London, the West Midlands, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, and parts of Lancashire, South Yorkshire, and Merseyside.
Among British Muslims surveyed, 60% said they would vote for a pro-Gaza independent candidate to prevent a Labour victory, while 49% would back the Greens for the same reason.
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Similar majorities (55–57%) indicated they would use independents or Greens to block Conservative or Reform wins — suggesting Labour is now viewed as unpopular as its main rivals within this demographic.
The report notes that while British identity remains important to 74% of respondents (similar to the general population), religious identity ranks first for 63% of Muslims (versus 12% generally).
