Exit polls show that the overwhelming majority of Muslim New Yorkers voted for Zohran Mamdani in last week’s mayoral election, while 60% of Jews backed pro-Israel candidate Andrew Cuomo.
Surveys from CNN, NBC News, the Associated Press (AP), and Fox News revealed how the Israel-Gaza conflict was perhaps the defining issue of the election.
For New York’s estimated one million Muslims — about 12% of the population — Mamdani’s win felt like a long-overdue reckoning. Historically sidelined by post-9/11 surveillance and political marginalisation, Muslim turnout had languished at 10-12% in recent cycles.
Not this time. Energised by Mamdani’s embrace of his Ugandan-born, Indian-rooted Muslim identity, and his vocal advocacy for Palestinian rights amid Gaza’s devastation, Muslim voters turned out at rates estimated 40-50% higher than in 2021.
According to the AP Voter Poll and NBC News Exit Poll, about 90% of Muslim voters backed Mamdani. This bloc, comprising roughly 4% of the electorate, punched above its weight in a race where every percentage point mattered.
On the other hand, New York’s 1.1 million Jews—around 10-13% of the electorate—emerged as Cuomo’s staunchest allies.
Exit polls painted a clear picture: 63% supported Cuomo, 33% Mamdani, and just 3% Sliwa, per CNN and NBC data.
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Cuomo, a longtime Israel supporter, framed Mamdani as a threat to Jewish safety amid rising antisemitism reports.
Backed by Orthodox groups and figures like billionaire Bill Ackman, he warned of “dangerous roads” under socialist leadership.
For many, the war was decisive: 49% of Mamdani’s voters (and 44% of Cuomo’s) called Israel positions a “major factor,” with Jewish respondents overwhelmingly prioritising pro-Israel credentials.
Yet the Jewish vote wasn’t monolithic. A generational chasm emerged — Fox News found 50% of Jews under 45 backed Mamdani, drawn to his economic populism, versus 70% of those over 45 for Cuomo.
Meanwhile, New York’s Christian voters — encompassing Catholics (about 30-35% of the city), Protestants (15-20%), and smaller evangelical contingents — offered a more splintered portrait, reflecting the city’s blue-collar and moderate leanings.
Unlike the bloc-like solidarity of Muslims or the Israel-fueled cohesion among Jews, Christians split along class, ethnicity and ideology.
Catholics, often Italian, Irish, and Hispanic, favored Cuomo with 39% support (per Quinnipiac pre-election data), edging out Mamdani’s 32% and Sliwa’s 23%.
Evangelicals, a smaller subset concentrated in Black and Caribbean churches, showed stronger progressive tilts: Protestants overall went 48% for Mamdani, per Quinnipiac, aligning with his affordability agenda that resonated in the Bronx and Harlem.
Overall, Christians mirrored the electorate’s divide: Moderates to Cuomo, progressives and youth to Mamdani. In Black-majority precincts (often Protestant-heavy), Mamdani flipped a 6-point primary loss to Cuomo into a 25-point general win, capturing 64%.
