The right-wing Reform UK party, which is widely perceived to be Islamophobic, has achieved a series of stunning victories in England’s local elections, sending alarm bells out to the Muslim community.
The right-wing populist party, which panders to and amplifies Islamophobic sentiment, secured a parliamentary by-election win, a mayoral race, and significant council seat gains, signalling a growing challenge to the dominance of the Labour and Conservative parties.
Reform UK capitalised on widespread voter disillusionment, achieving several landmark successes:
- Reform UK’s Sarah Pochin won the parliamentary seat of Runcorn and Helsby in Cheshire by a razor-thin margin of six votes, overturning a Labour majority of nearly 15,000.
- Andrea Jenkyns was elected the first mayor of the Greater Lincolnshire Combined County Authority, giving Reform UK its first taste of regional power.
- Reform UK made substantial inroads in local councils, particularly in areas like Northumberland, Kent and Lincolnshire. Early results indicated the party gained at least 23 seats in Northumberland alone, with projections suggesting they could secure between 400 and 450 council seats nationwide, potentially outperforming all other parties.
These victories were amplified by Reform UK’s strong performance in other mayoral races, where they came close to winning in Hull and East Yorkshire, Doncaster, and the West of England.
Implications for British Muslims
Reform UK’s unprecedented success has raised alarm among British Muslim communities and advocacy groups.
The right-wing populist party’s rise, driven by anti-immigration rhetoric and policies perceived as Islamophobic, poses significant implications for British Muslims, potentially affecting their safety and national social cohesion.
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Reform UK’s campaign rhetoric, which often singles out immigrants and minorities as threats to British identity, has been criticised for normalising anti-Muslim sentiment.
The party’s focus on issues like “outlawing Shari’ah” and references to “sectarian Islamist votes” are seen as dog-whistle politics that implicitly target Muslims.
Muslim advocacy groups fear that Reform UK’s electoral success could erode the UK’s multicultural model, which has historically positioned the country as inclusive compared to other European nations.
Reform UK’s policies and messaging, which emphasise a homogenous British identity and criticise multiculturalism, are perceived as a direct challenge to the UK’s diverse social fabric.
The party’s appeal to older, white, and predominantly male voters, coupled with its anti-immigration stance, risks alienating minority communities, including Muslims.
If Reform UK continues to gain ground, it could shift public discourse toward far-right narratives, mirroring trends in Europe where parties like Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) have gained traction through anti-Muslim rhetoric.
Factors behind Reform UK’s success
Several factors contributed to Reform UK’s electoral breakthrough, with both Labour and the Conservatives facing significant public discontent.
Labour, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, saw its popularity plummet after less than a year in government, with policies like Winter Fuel Payment cuts and National Insurance hikes alienating traditional supporters.
Labour’s loss in Runcorn and Helsby, coupled with weak council performances, exposes weaknesses in their northern “Red Wall” strongholds. Reform UK’s ability to attract lifelong Labour voters, as seen in Hull, suggests the party could disrupt Labour’s base in the 2029 general election.
Editorial credit: Fred Duval / Shutterstock.com
The Conservatives, led by Kemi Badenoch, struggled to recover from their 2024 general election defeat, with many voters viewing them as out of touch.
The Conservatives face an existential threat. Reform UK’s gains in Tory heartlands like Lincolnshire and Kent could accelerate defections, with dispirited Conservative voters and politicians considering Reform UK as a viable alternative.
Reform UK positioned itself as the anti-establishment alternative, appealing to those frustrated with the political status quo.
The results therefore highlight the collapse of traditional two-party politics, with Reform UK emerging as a credible third force.
Reform UK’s success mirrors global trends toward populist movements, drawing comparisons to Donald Trump’s influence in the United States.
Challenges ahead for Reform UK
Despite its triumphs, Reform UK faces significant hurdles. The party’s narrow victory in Runcorn highlights the challenges of converting polling leads into seats under the first-past-the-post system, as seen with UKIP’s struggles in 2013.
Internal cohesion is another concern, with reports of tensions between Farage’s centralised leadership and local branches.
The party’s vetting processes, while improved, remain under scrutiny after controversies involving candidates like Sarah Pochin, who faced criticism for past conduct as a magistrate.
Moreover, governing presents new challenges. Reform UK’s mayors and councillors will need to deliver on promises in areas like Lincolnshire, where economic regeneration is a priority.
Failure to do so could damage the party’s credibility, especially as it aims to position itself as a contender for the 2029 general election.
