On Friday, the major powers agreed to a “cessation” of hostilities in Syria to begin within a week. Billed as great success, the agreement is unlikely to make much difference on the ground as Saudi Arabia and Turkey continue to agitate for a ground war in Syria and President Assad announces that he will not stop fighting until he has retaken all of Syria. Abdel Bari Atwan asks what is really going on behind the scenes?
The Syrian crisis appears to be moving into a crucial new phase as joint Russian/Iranian/Syrian efforts begin to produce results for the regime. Even as world powers met, first in Brussels and then in Munich, Russian jets attacked Tal Rifaat in Aleppo province and towns in northern Homs.
The “cessation of hostilities” agreement has not been signed by either the Syrian regime or the opposition; it may in fact simply be giving pro-Assad elements the time they need to complete the encirclement of Aleppo, one of the most important cities in Syria, advancing their path towards Assad’s stated goal which is to retake the whole of Syria.
Assad’s new found confidence appears to stem from strategic cunning developed with Moscow. The US has described his recent comments as “deluded.”
As for the West and its regional allies, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, they will have to consider whether to step up their military response to the increased strength of the regime, backed by Russia and Iran, or wave the white flag and accept that the opposition will never prevail.
Turkish and Saudi fury
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan no longer conceals his fury as he views the rapid changes taking place in Syria. Regime forces have begun to take back control over the border with Turkey, cutting supply lines to the opposition and meanwhile more than 70,000 new Syrian refugees from Aleppo are waiting at the border in the hope of finding sanctuary in Turkey – which is already home to 2.5 million Syrian migrants.
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“We do not have the word ‘idiot’ written on our foreheads,” he said in a speech in Ankara during which he threatened to send millions of Syrian refugees into the EU. “Don’t think that the planes and buses are there for nothing,” he added.
A European analyst responded sarcastically to this comment: “Why send them to us, send them rather to your allies in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf first.”
The Saudis are agitating for a military solution in Syria as their long-term support for the opposition has failed to produce the desired results. The most logical way to do this would be via Turkey, where a buffer zone would be created on the border allowing the start of ground operations. Turkey has acknowledged that Saudi Arabia has sent troops and fighters jets to the US-controlled Incirlik military base.
Russian cunning
Russia has used the window created by peace talks to gain time and Moscow has already said it may not stop its air strikes in Syria even if the cessation of hostilities agreement comes into effect. Its rationale is that Islamic State (ISIS) and al-Nusra fighters are not covered by the agreement and it will continue its fight against these elements. The West and its allies deny that Russia is targeting IS, claiming that most air strikes have hit opposition entities.
President Vladimir Putin has made it clear that neither the defeat of IS nor the implementation of a ceasefire prior to a negotiated settlement for Syria are possible without closing the Syrian-Turkish border, cutting supplies to both the Syrian opposition and hard-line Islamic groups.
Saudi Arabia has said that it will not act unilaterally in Syria and is trying to prod the US into action but Washington has made it plain that it is not minded to step up its involvement. US Secretary of State, John Kerry chided Syrian opposition representatives recently: “Do you want me to go to war with Russia for you?”
The Iranians are as determined as the Russians to prevent the fall of Assad. General Mohammad Ali Jaafari said that a military invasion by Saudi forces would be “suicide.” Syrian foreign minister, Walid Al-Moualem, said that Saudi troops would return in wooden boxes if they entered Syrian territory without the authorization of the Government.
Leaked reports spoke of an agreement between Moscow and Damascus that any incursions into Syrian territory would be met with immediate force with no need to seek approval from senior leadership. Putin has even said that any foreign Arab or Western action in Syria would unleash the Third World War.
Military action?
So how serious is Saudi Arabia about the military action it is threatening?
Riyadh would like to engage Iran in a direct confrontation but has been unable to do so as yet. Its 11 month campaign in Yemen failed to draw Tehran out from cover behind the Houthi forces it is backing. The Saudis have established an “Islamic Coalition,” ostensibly to combat IS; this overtly Sunni alliance has, as yet, produced no takers for a war with Iran in Syria with the exception of Bahrain and the UAE.
Tehran seemingly prefers to draw Riyadh into costly wars of attrition and Syria – where Iran’s allies already have the upper hand – will be a great deal more expensive than the Yemeni campaign which has already cost the kingdom upwards of $70 billion.
The hot-headed Prince Mohammad bin Salman, defence minister and deputy crown prince – whom many say is the power behind the throne – personally led the Saudi delegation to Nato on Wednesday and met with his US counterpart Ash Carter. There is little doubt that if Riyadh could persuade Washington to join it, it would immediately embark on a Syrian military adventure.
It has been agitating for regime change in Damascus for five years and has done everything in its power – with funding, arming and training the opposition – to achieve this aim but with little success. Riyadh faces loss of face and humiliation if it backs down over Syria and risks losing its regional status – possibly the tenure of the royal family could be adversely affected.
Washington, however, remains tepid; the report of Prince Mohammad’s meeting with Carter focusing on counter-terrorism efforts and affirming “the US commitment to the enduring defence partnership between the US and Saudi Arabia.”
Likely outcomes
The current situation in Syria can go three ways over the coming weeks:
First: the present escalation and brinksmanship may produce greater flexibility in the positions of both sides, leading to progress in negotiations in Geneva in two weeks’ time.
Second: Russia’s cunning strategies will succeed in gaining time, enabling Assad to recover Aleppo, and close the border with Turkey to insurgents and cut off the rebels’ supply lines.
Third: the United States agrees to back Saudi Arabia and Turkey in a direct intervention in Syria in a bid to reset the balance of power. In such a case, all out sectarian war, with the possibility of escalation into global war is almost certain.
