Adel Bari Atwan explains how Turkey, which just a few years ago was experiencing unprecedented internal stability and had good relations with all its neighbours, now faces domestic uncertainty and the threat of external attack.
Four days after the suicide attack in the Turkish town of Suruc, allegedly perpetrated by a twenty year-old Turkish student who recently joined Islamic State (IS) and which killed 32 Kurds, most of them aid workers participating in a festival to raise funds for rebuilding the city of Ain Arab (Kobani), Turkish warplanes carried out their first bombardment against IS positions inside Syria while tanks and artillery from Turkey’s Fifth Armored Brigade shelled militants across the border.
Hours later, Ankara announced that it would allow US planes to fly out of Incirlik air base and Diyarbakir on bombing missions. Why has Turkey suddenly reversed its hitherto neutral position on IS and become deeply embroiled in the Syrian crisis?
The answer lies in a telephone call between US President Barack Obama and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday, which was the culmination of recent negotiations between Gen. John R. Allen, a retired Marine who is Mr Obama’s special envoy for the fight against the Islamic State, and Turkish counterparts. General Allen’s trip was preceded by a telephone call from Vice President Joe Biden to Mr Erdogan, administration officials said.
Turkey has now assumed the mantle of the foremost regional power engaged in the fight against IS and the role of leader in that effort.
In exchange for allowing the US to use air bases inside Turkey for strikes against IS – with the possibility that these may extend to the Assad regime in Damascus – Turkey expects Washington to agree to its longstanding demand for a 50 km deep buffer zone along a 90 km stretch of its border with Syria – a total amount of 4,500 square kilometres, almost half of the area of Lebanon.
This agreement, and the obligations it entails, is perhaps the most dangerous in the history of Turkey since the rejection of the legacy of the Ottoman Caliphate by Kemal Atatürk nearly a hundred years ago which saw the founding of modern Turkey in 1923.
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It comes at a time when the country’s internal stability – after thirteen years of strong government and prosperity – is weakened by the failure of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party to gain a majority in the recent elections, and its inability to form a working coalition to govern.
Unspoken truce with jihadists
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s previous government had an unspoken truce with the jihadists and Islamic militants inside Syria for the past four years; Ankara’s main concern was to enable rebel forces of any (and all) types to depose Assad and it facilitated the passage of arms and volunteers to that end as well as the sales, via the black market, of illicit IS oil.
In a 7 August 2014 interview, Ahmet Davutoğlu – the then Foreign Minister and current Prime Minister – spoke neutrally of the Islamic State which he refused to classify as terrorist, describing it instead as a group of angry and persecuted Sunni Muslims. He blamed the sectarian policies of the then (Shia) Iraqi President, Nouri al-Maliki, for the rise of IS as well as the increased resistance by ethnic minorities such as the Kurds. The latter’s drive for autonomy on land inside current Turkish borders formerly eclipsed Ankara’s other security concerns.
While Turkey has now all but declared war on Islamic State it is worthy of note that is has not adopted a similarly hostile stance to other powerful jihadist groups such as al-Nusra and indigenous Syrian entities.
Turkey has a strong army and unrivalled expertise in guerrilla warfare (gained in its 30 year conflict with Kurdish separatist militia such as the PKK) which makes it a very attractive ally in the war against IS for the US-led coalition.
It is true that Turkey’s apparent truce with IS was largely to preserve the lives and safety of the 49 Turkish diplomats Baghdadi’s group had taken hostage. They were freed in September 2014 but now the country is faced with the additional problem of more than 3,000 nationals who have crossed the border to join IS… “blowback” has already begun as the Suruc attack makes plain. Turkish intelligence is warning of well-trained sleeper cells that can be activated at any moment.
Nor is the sectarian aspect of the region’s current turmoil to be overlooked in respect of the Turkish stance. President Erdogan has often identified Turkey with the Sunni side of the equation which can only foment sectarianism in the country and which aligns Turkey against Assad and with his Sunni opponents – the most effective of whom are the jihadists.
Dangers
This turn in Turkey’s policy towards IS is fraught with danger, not least the risk of attacks on tourist resorts – like the horrific massacre on the beach in Sousse, Tunisia last month which IS has claimed – which would be catastrophic for the Turkish economy which relies heavily on the $30 billion generated by visitor annually.
The final point which requires careful consideration concerns the position of the Assad regime towards the establishment of a no-fly zone deep inside its territory; having battled every challenge to its dominance with the most unbridled violence, it is unlikely that it would simply relent, passively, to such a massive sea-change in its fortunes. Turkey might face a dual threat – from IS and Assad’s barrel bombs and worse.
What is more likely is that the Assad regime will be brought on board through smoke and mirrors diplomacy and the political process towards a negotiated resolution to the Syrian crisis restarted. UK Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, made it clear to the parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee that the West’s main concern now is to defeat IS and that it does not want to dismantle the only strong state institution in the region – read between the lines, the Assad regime – while this battle is ongoing against a shared enemy.
In addition, Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, has set in motion a pincer diplomatic move to create a “quartet” to confront IS which also includes Turkey… along with Saudi Arabia, Jordan and… the Assad regime.
Since the 5 + 1 world powers’ agreement with Iran over its nuclear projects, it seems the whole region’s allegiances are changing and nothing is certain anymore, from the rules of the game to the colours of the players’ shirts.
What is tragic is that Turkey was the one successful regional example of harmony and prosperity until very recently. Saudi Arabia is embroiled in war with Yemen, Syria is mired in internal wars, Iraq is divided by sectarianism and ethnic conflict, Egypt is struggling with an extremist insurgency in Sinai and the streets of Cairo, Libya is a failed state…
What has caused Ankara to sacrifice its stability and prosperity for this new and very dangerous path? If it is a desire to please the West, we have to ask for what purpose? It is deeply paradoxical that Turkey, the twentieth most successful economy in the world, has been refused entry to the European Union until now while its neighbour, Greece, acceded readily to those august ranks and now suffers humiliation and bankruptcy.
