With the entry of Yemen’s Houthi movement into the Iran war, the Bab al-Mandeb – a key global shipping route and energy lifeline – could become the next chokepoint for the world’s economy.
Tensions linked to the Iran war are beginning to affect critical maritime corridors far from the immediate battlefield.
After disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, attention has shifted west toward another fragile chokepoint.
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a narrow passage at the southern end of the Red Sea, has become a growing concern for analysts and policymakers. Even limited instability there could amplify existing disruptions in global shipping and energy markets.
Recent signals from Yemen’s Iran aligned Houthi group suggest the area could be drawn further into the conflict. That raises the stakes for one of the busiest and most strategically important trade routes in the world.
Global gateway
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, forming a vital link between Europe and Asia. It separates Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea and serves as a crossroads between continents.
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The strait stretches about 100 kilometers in length and narrows to roughly 30 kilometers at its tightest point.
This narrow geography forces massive volumes of global trade through a confined space, increasing its vulnerability.
Millions of barrels of oil, liquefied natural gas, and container cargo pass through daily.
Its importance has grown since the Suez Canal opened in 1869, creating a direct maritime route to Europe without sailing around Africa.
Energy flows
The Bab al-Mandeb is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. In 2023, about 9.3 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum liquids moved through it, nearly 12 percent of global seaborne oil trade.
That figure dropped sharply in 2024 to around 4.1 million barrels per day following attacks on shipping. The disruption also reduced flows through the Suez Canal and related pipelines, showing how interconnected these routes are.
Only two other chokepoints handle more oil traffic, making Bab al-Mandeb critical to global supply.
Any sustained disruption could ripple across markets, raising prices and straining supply chains worldwide.
Rising threats
The Houthi movement has already demonstrated its ability to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea.
Its attacks on commercial vessels forced many ships to reroute around the southern tip of Africa, increasing costs and delays.
The group recently escalated its involvement by launching missile strikes toward Israel. A senior official said their actions are “precisely calculated to be effective and to multiply pressure on Israel and America.”
He added that the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and Bab al-Mandeb “will be among the options” in the conflict.
This raises concerns that the strait could become a direct pressure point in the broader war.
Market impact
Analysts warn that further instability could have wide ranging consequences. Farea Al-Muslimi, a Yemeni researcher and research fellow at Chatham House, said “any sustained disruption will drive up shipping costs, increase oil prices and place additional strain on a fragile global economy that is already reeling from the situation in the Strait of Hormuz,”.
Oil prices have already surged more than 50 percent since the conflict began, with Brent crude exceeding 116 dollars per barrel.
Continued disruption could push prices even higher and deepen economic strain.
Analysts warn that without Red Sea routes, Gulf oil exports could stall quickly. They note that absent the Red Sea route, Gulf oil flows could grind to a halt after a couple more weeks of war, highlighting how close the system may be to a tipping point.
